Bits and Pieces

Friday, February 11, 2005

Moonbats Rejoice, Riot

Well, it looks like good news for the left: Bush's job approval rating drops to 45% (via Wizbang). True to form, Atrios' commenters, those wags, chip in with their typically reasoned responses.

For example:-

Fuck Bush and the Whores he rode in on. Good to see glad tidings on this day.

Good morning. FUCK BUSH!

Oh, and if you live in a liberal "enclave" like a large coastal city, watch your ass. Who knows what these people will do to keep power.


Unfortunately for these shining examples of humanity, it seems the poll isn't all it claims to be. The results of the poll, taken by Ipsos Public Affairs, go against every other recent approval poll. Indeed, every other poll taken in February (Fox News, Rasmussen, CNN/USA Today/Gallup and Newsweek) tell a different story. The least favourable, taken by Rasmussen, gives Bush a 49/49% split, while the rest give him between 50-57% - a spread of between 8-17% favourable/unfavourable. In addition, since the election only Rasmussen has presented results suggesting anything stronger than a -1% spread - the mean being +5.7% (all poll results from RealClearPolitics).

So - it seems fair to say that the Ipsos result of a -9% spread is an anomaly. But that isn't all. Looking back at historical data, out of 86 polls taken in advance of November's Presidential election, only 7 predicted a win for John Kerry. Guess what Ipsos predicted. Yup. Not only once, though. Of the 7 polls predicting a Kerry win, 2 were from Ipsos. In addition, they were the only pollsters to predict a result for Kerry greater than +2% - +4% early October, and +3% at the end of the month.

In light of this it could be suggested that Ipsos is ridiculously partisan - or it could just be that they aren't very good at taking the temperature of the nation. Either way, three words come to mind regarding their polls:

Pinch. Of. Salt.
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